Mobile computing, consisting of smartphones and tablets, has been the most exciting part of the computing landscape for the past several years and that promises to remain true in 2012. In fact, you could argue smartphones have replaced traditional PCs as the center of the technology market since smartphone sales overtook PC sales this year (even though the PC market continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace).
The past few years have seen some truly revolutionary steps: the acceptance of the smartphone, the introduction of the iPad and Android-based consumer tablets, and the introduction of LTE. Nonetheless, 2012 foreshadows more evolution.
Operating Systems
Mobile operating systems have truly defined smartphones and tablets recently, and that's likely to stay the same. The first big change for next year should be the introduction of many more phones and tablets that run Android 4.0, known as Ice Cream Sandwich. The first phone based on this technology, the Samsung Galaxy Nexus, is already out (here's my take), and a number of vendors have said some of their existing models will be upgraded to the new OS shortly. But 2012 is likely to see dozens of new phones and tablets all designed to run Android 4.0.
Microsoft's 2012 roadmap is also getting a lot of attention. For tablets, the company will push Windows 8, running on both traditional x86-based computers and on systems based on chips from ARM-based vendors Nvidia, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm. Although it will run on desktops and traditional notebooks as well, Windows 8 seems very much optimized for tablets. For phones, we haven't seen many details yet, but Microsoft—which just shipped Windows Phone 7.5, known as Mango in October—is working on Windows Phone 8, called Apollo, for the later part of 2012. It may well have an interim release in between. The other OS vendors will be upgrading their systems, as well.
Research In Motion has promised a February update for its PlayBook tablet OS. That should include native email messaging and calendar clients. In the later part of 2012, RIM has promised a new OS, called BlackBerry OS 10, which combines features from the QNX-based PlayBook OS with the traditional BlackBerry ones. One particularly interesting feature promised is a "Player" that will allow some Android applications to run on BlackBerrys.
And finally, there's Apple, which, as usual, has remained very tight-lipped about its plans. The latest version of its mobile OS, iOS 5, shipped just this fall, so it would be surprising to see a major revision any time soon.
Networks and Screens
Verizon rolled out its 4G LTE service this year on a variety of phones and says its service now reaches over 186 million Americans. AT&T is in the process of rolling out its service and recently released its first LTE phones. Sprint, which has backed Wimax for 4G until now, has said it will be launching LTE in mid-2012. U.S. Cellular is also planning an LTE rollout. Of the major carriers, that leaves T-Mobile, which is promoting its HSPA network as 4G, as the only one without an LTE strategy.
As a result, we're likely to see a lot more LTE devices next year. So far, just about all the LTE phones and tablets run Android, but Nokia has promised an LTE Windows Phone in 2012 and other makers seem likely to follow. BlackBerry is expected to get LTE support with the BlackBerry 10 OS. Apple isn't talking, but everyone assumes LTE support is coming next year, as well.
Over the past few years, led by the iPhone 4's retina display, almost all smartphones have dramatically increased their screen resolutions. While tablets often have a higher resolution display, it is spread over a larger area so the pixel density has been notably less. In 2012, I expect many of the screen makers, and thus many of the tablet makers, to offer higher-density displays, both from traditional LCDs and Active Matrix OLED (AMOLED) screens.
Mobile Chips
Until a few years ago, no one outside of the industry cared which processors were running our mobile devices. Now, that has changed. Processors are routinely used to differentiate phones and tablets.
The vast majority of these devices run some version of the ARM architecture and the various makers of ARM-based chips compete, updating the number of cores, increasing performance and power efficiency, and enhancing integration.
Just about all of the major mobile chip vendors now have dual-core processors, but Nvidia has taken multi-processing to a new level. Its Tegra 3 chip, known as Kal-El, has four standard ARM Cortex-A9 cores plus an additional "companion core" that runs at low-power when the more powerful chips aren't needed. The Asus Transformer Prime pioneers the chip but Nvidia has said it expects new tablets and phones with Tegra 3 and Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich to be out in the first quarter of 2012.
The advantage of this chip, Nvidia said, is that it allows higher-performance games and 1080p playback, all while using notably less power than its previous Tegra 2 dual-core processor. Sometime next year, the company plans an improved version known as "Tegra 3 ," followed by a major upgrade known as "Wayne" in the second half of the year and a version with an integrated baseband processor known as "Grey" in 2013.
Next year, Qualcomm will introduce its Snapdragon S4 line. It will use a CPU core known as Krait, which combines the baseband processor (for controlling the radio) with the applications processor on a 28nm process and will also feature its Adreno graphics. This should include such things as integrated LTE support and lower power usage, along with notably higher performance. These will be dual-core processors with integrated basebands; Qualcomm will also offer a quad-core S4 application processor with no baseband for tablets and other mobile computing devices.
Texas Instruments' OMAP4 line has been chosen as the initial processor for the first Android 4.0 devices, as well as the Kindle Fire and the Nook Tablet, and has a big change planned for next year's OMAP5. This chip uses a new core from ARM called the Cortex-A15, which allows for 40-bit instructions (versus 32 in the current ARM Cortex-A9). TI has said this chip will have dual A15s running at 2 GHz or faster, as well as two Cortex-M4 cores for low-power applications and Imagination Technologies' PowerVR graphics.
Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments devices are used in Android phones and tablets and will be used in Windows 8 designs, as well.
But there are a number of other ARM-based vendors who sell chips for smartphones and tablets.
Samsung is already sampling its own Exynos series of processors using a 32nm process and dual Cortex-A15 cores, and is the first company to ship that core. To date, Samsung has mostly used its processors internally, rather than selling to other phone makers, but we'll see if that changes. ST-Ericsson has a new family of processors known as NovaThor, available either as separate application processor and baseband chips or an integrated solution, and has historically been quite strong at Nokia. Marvell has single, dual, and quad-core ARM chips as part of its Armada family of applications processors.
Freescale is sampling one-, two-, and four-core versions of its i.MX6 family, including a quad-core Cortex-A9 version with a 64-bit memory bus and Vivante graphics. While Freescale focuses more on "intelligent systems" and embedded markets, it has also seen success with e-book readers and low-end tablets, and will be breaking into the tablet market next year. Broadcom, which is known for its highly-integrated connectivity chips (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.), is also making a move into the smartphone category with application processors and 4G LTE basebands. A few companies that make processors based on the MIPS core (a competitor to ARM) are working on Android-compatibility versions, as well.
But it's Intel that really hopes to change the market by embracing Android 4.0 with a new design of its x86-compatible Atom chip, known as Medfield. Intel has long promised it would be a player in the phone market, but has always come up short. Through the chip's support of Android and its move to 32nm technology, Intel hopes to be more of a player in 2012, and I expect to see a big push for this at CES in January.
For the past several years, Intel's Atom has been on 45nm technology, while its Core processor line has been on new process technology. That will change over the next few years with a 32nm architecture known as Saltwell slated for 2012, a 22nm version known as Silvermont for 2013, and a 14nm version known as Airmont in 2014—all of which have multiple chips. On the 2012 32nm roadmap, Medfield is aimed at Android-based tablets and smartphones, while Clover Trail is aimed most directly at Windows 8 tablets. (Of course, you'll also see some Windows 8 tablets based on the more powerful but more power consuming Core family, using notebook style chips.)
AMD also plans a break into tablets and smartphones with Desna, a variation of its E-series processor based on the low-power Bobcat core. This was slated to be replaced in 2012 by a version known as Hondo, but AMD's roadmap is currently unclear.
And then there's Apple, which of course, hasn't announced its plans. It is widely expected, though, that its dual-core A5, based on the ARM architecture and manufactured on Samsung's 45nm process, will be replaced by a new processor called the A6, widely rumored to be on a 28nm or 32nm process with four cores. I'd be very surprised to see a new iPhone next year without a new processor.
From operating systems and processors to screens and networks, 2012 promises all sorts of changes for makers of mobile devices. Will either of the two companies that have dominated the traditional PC—Microsoft and Intel—come back and impact the smartphone and tablet market, where smaller competitors have thus far been much more successful?
Copyright © 2010 Ziff Davis Publishing Holdings Inc.
source:2012 Mobile Roadmap
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