Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo cut smartphone shipment targets by up to 30 pct as component prices surge
Follow UsXiaomi has cut its 2026 shipment forecast to around 95 million units
Oppo and Vivo have both revised their forecasts to below 90 million units
Counterpoint Research now expects the global smartphone market to decline 14% in 2026
Chinese smartphone makers including Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo have told suppliers they are cutting shipment targets again this year, in some cases by as much as 30%, as rising component costs and severe shortages continue to disrupt the industry, according to a Nikkei Asia report citing multiple sources briefed on the matter.
SurveyXiaomi, the world’s third-largest smartphone brand after Samsung and Apple had already lowered its 2026 forecast earlier this year to around 135 million units, down sharply from the 170 million units shipped in 2025. That figure has now been cut by a further 30%, to approximately 95 million units with Xiaomi citing severe component shortages and surging prices that have disrupted its product roadmap, Nikkei’s sources said. The company has reportedly warned suppliers the forecast could fall further if supply conditions do not improve.
Oppo and Vivo have similarly revised their targets down to below 90 million units each and Honor, which shipped a record 71 million units last year, has told suppliers it may not be able to sustain that growth in 2026. One component supplier executive told Nikkei that a 15% shipment decline has become the baseline among Chinese clients, with some cuts exceeding 20% or even 30% compared to the forecasts given at the end of 2025. “We worry about Xiaomi the most, as its brand power of affordability is really tested amid the rising costs for everything,” the executive said.
Why this is happening
The core problem is that smartphone makers are now competing directly with AI infrastructure companies for the same components. The low-power DRAM chips, traditionally used mainly in mobile devices are increasingly being diverted to AI servers; a single Nvidia Vera CPU tray reportedly consumes numerous LPDDR chips on its own. As a result, smartphone makers are being pushed further back in line for production capacity. MediaTek and Qualcomm, the two largest mobile chip developers, have both shifted greater focus toward the more lucrative data centre business and MediaTek has told clients it will raise prices due to the rise in manufacturing costs.
The squeeze extends well beyond memory chips. Printed circuit boards (PCBs), CPUs, glass cloth, advanced chipmaking services and packaging capacity are all facing price increases or supply constraints, according to Nikkei’s report.
This is hitting budget and mid-range brands hardest, since price-sensitive customers leave little room to pass rising costs on directly. As one component supplier executive put it, “Reducing production targets is their best choice, otherwise they lose money on every unit sold.”
Counterpoint Research now projects a 14% decline in the global smartphone market for 2026, the steepest on record, with IDC forecasting a similar drop overall and as much as 21% specifically among Android brands. Samsung is seen as comparatively better positioned, given its focus on higher-end devices and stronger access to memory supply, while demand for aftermarket and refurbished phones has reportedly risen in China as consumers hold onto existing devices longer.
