Something changed at Apple on 1 September 2026 when Tim Cook stepped down as chief executive officer, handing the role to John Ternus, a hardware engineer who spent his career in Apple’s product groups, obsessing over materials, tolerances and manufacturing precision. Ternus hosts his first product event under Apple’s ‘Surprise and Shine’ banner later today. The pressure of that debut would have been significant in any year, but this year, it is compounded by a convergence of circumstances that makes the September event Apple’s most consequential in nearly a decade.
Three iPhones are expected on stage: the iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max and the product that has occupied more bandwidth than anything Apple has done since the iPhone X in 2017. The first Apple foldable, widely referred to as the iPhone Ultra, is the brand’s first new smartphone form factor in eight years. It is expected to open at $2,099 globally, which at current exchange rates translates to approximately Rs 1,98,000. After India’s import duties and Goods and Services Tax (GST) are applied, that number could climb considerably higher. The standard iPhone 18 is expected to be absent as Apple has allegedly split its launch calendar, pushing the base model to early 2027. Additionally, Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5 are expected to round out the announcement. Above all of it sits a question that has not attended an Apple event in years: what does a product-led Apple look like from the inside and does the country that was its fastest-growing major smartphone market in 2025 benefit or absorb the pressure of the most expensive iPhone lineup Apple has ever assembled?
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Ternus is, by training and disposition, a hardware man. Cook built Apple’s global dominance on supply chain rigour and operational scale and left behind a company with over Rs 4.61 lakh crore USD in market capitalisation. Whether the transition reshapes Apple’s product priorities in ways that become visible soon is a question analysts are approaching with measured expectation.
‘Ternus could put greater emphasis on hardware innovation, engineering quality and new product categories, while retaining Cook’s strengths in supply chain, scale and operational discipline, which has helped Apple grow in the emerging markets in recent times’, said Shubham Nimkar, Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research. ‘The launch of foldables is an early indication; the new direction will come from the pipeline, where products across different categories and new form factors, where a more product-led Apple could become increasingly visible.’
Faisal Kawoosa, Founder and technology analyst at Techarc, takes a steadier view of what executive transitions change at scale: ‘While the company orientation does get a little bit impacted by the profile of the CEO, once a CEO the focus is on holistic growth. The past success wins a person the CEO role, but once a CEO the priorities are equally distributed across functions.’
Prabhu Ram, VP of the Industry Research Group at CyberMedia Research (CMR), situates the transition through a sharper institutional lens: ‘Apple is facing dual headwinds: an AI brain drain and a generational leadership shuffle, heading into its iPhone launch event. There are favourable tailwinds too, emanating from the anticipated foldable launch, one that has reignited consumer interest eight years after foldables first hit the market.’
However, independent technology analyst Yogesh Brar adds a pinch of caution: ‘John Ternus taking charge does potentially mark a change in emphasis for Apple, but I would not expect its strategic DNA to change overnight. Over the longer term, that could translate into greater willingness to take hardware risks and explore new form factors, but much of this product cycle would have been decided well before he became CEO.’
On whether the company’s 50th anniversary year lends the event extraordinary significance, Nimkar reflects that Apple’s historical category shifts were driven by long-term product bets rather than anniversary timing, though the timing of a foldable launch alongside a new chief executive makes this moment ‘more strategically significant than a normal annual refresh.’ Kawoosa is more direct when he says ‘Apple’s DNA means they have not pushed innovation to mark a moment. When Apple has felt that they need to bring some genuine innovation to customers, they have brought it irrespective of the year being a significant one or not.’ Brar draws the historical parallel most sharply: ‘Apple’s 50th anniversary certainly gives this launch additional symbolism, but anniversaries themselves do not create successful products. The iPhone X was important because it changed the direction of the iPhone, not simply because it arrived around the tenth anniversary. The real test for the foldable will similarly be whether Apple can improve the experience enough to justify entering a category several years after Samsung.’
The iPhone Ultra, if that is what Apple calls it, is expectedly a book-style foldable with a 5.5-inch outer OLED display and a 7.8-inch inner OLED screen. It will run Apple’s A20 Pro chip built on a 2nm process and reports indicate it will use Touch ID on the power button rather than Face ID, a design concession to the engineering constraints of a folding form factor. Storage options are rumoured to go up to 2TB.
Apple enters the category as a latecomer, with Samsung now on its eighth generation of the Galaxy Z Fold. Analysts largely agree, however, that this temporal gap matters less than it appears. ‘What Samsung and others have done over these years is not just a learning for Samsung but others too, including Apple. Apple’s first generation versus Samsung’s eighth generation will not mean much in terms of reliability, functionality and acceptability’, said Kawoosa. Nimkar is more precise about where the gap persists: ‘Apple can get close on hardware parity with its first foldable, but it is unlikely to match Samsung on overall foldable maturity from day one. Apple has had years to study the category and appears to be entering after the technology has matured, rather than taking the same risks Samsung did with its early Folds. Apple could launch with a product that looks second or third generation in hardware design, while still needing subsequent generations to fully optimise the foldable experience.’
The more significant claim around Apple’s entry is what it does to the category’s perception. ‘There is a large number of smartphone users who believe if Apple is not into something, then it is not either meaningful or there is some tech lacuna since Apple is not doing it. This will now change for foldables’, Kawoosa said. He stops short of predicting mainstream adoption, but does not rule out Apple commanding half of global foldable sales within a couple of years. IDC, in a December 2025 forecast, projected the worldwide foldable smartphone market to grow 30% year-on-year in 2026, partly on the expectation of Apple’s entry. Whether India participates meaningfully in that growth is a real question. At a likely starting price well above Rs 2,00,000, the iPhone Ultra targets a segment that, for now, numbers in the tens of thousands of potential buyers rather than millions. Nimkar notes that Samsung, Huawei and other Chinese OEMs will also drive that global growth and that Apple will be one catalyst among several. Ram frames Apple’s entry with historical calibration: ‘Apple’s rumoured book-style foldable format is not new to the market, with Huawei and Samsung having pioneered it fairly recently. That head start should not deter Apple loyalists patiently waiting for the first-ever Apple foldable, as high prices are likely to be offset by the company’s affordability and accessibility initiatives.’
Brar’s assessment is that ‘Samsung has had years to improve hinges, displays, durability and software on the Galaxy Z Fold line. Apple cannot magically reproduce all that field experience on day one. At the same time, Apple has the benefit of observing many of the category’s early mistakes. I therefore expect a highly polished first-generation product, but buyers should still expect some first-generation compromises.’ Beyond individual purchases, he expects Apple’s entry to reshape the category’s infrastructure as ‘Apple’s entry gives the category legitimacy, encourages developers to optimise applications for larger folding displays and forces Android manufacturers to accelerate their own product development. In India, however, foldables will remain a niche in volume terms in 2026.’
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The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max carry hardware updates rather than a design overhaul. Some of the changes include the A20 Pro chip, a variable aperture camera expected to be exclusive to the Pro Max at launch, a smaller Dynamic Island and under-display Face ID. What also arrives is a price increase. Leaked estimates place the iPhone 18 Pro at Rs 1,35,000 to Rs 1,40,000 in India, the Pro Max at Rs 1,55,000 and above. The iPhone 17 Pro launched in India at Rs 1,19,900.
But what is allegedly absent from the line-up is a standard iPhone 18, the bestselling iPhone, atleast in India. Apple has delayed the base model to early 2027, a strategic split that defers the more volume-oriented iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2 alongside it and skews the entire autumn portfolio toward high-ticket products. In India, where base-model iPhones have historically driven significant volume, this creates a near-term gap. Nimkar expects the existing portfolio to cushion the impact: ‘The effect of no base model this year should be cushioned by continued sales of the iPhone 17 and older models, while the higher average selling price (ASP) of the Pro line-up and foldable could keep value growth much stronger than volume growth.’ Kawoosa agrees the delay does not represent a risk: ‘Apple understands that if anyone wants to settle with the base model and cannot wait another six to seven months, they will go with an iPhone 17 variant. It might momentarily shift the buying pattern, but it will not risk them losing customers.’
On the price increase more broadly, Kawoosa invokes an unusual economic framing: ‘There is a sort of Giffen paradox that we have noticed in case of Apple products. While other brands see the market shrinking, price increases in Apple products have not impacted their growth prospects much, even in a price-sensitive market like India. I do not see aspiration diluting because of increases in prices for Apple.’ Nimkar points to the demand infrastructure that now surrounds premium iPhone purchases as part of the explanation: ‘Apple can soften the impact of higher prices through EMIs, exchange offers and channel promotions, which have already supported its growth in India. A sharp decline in demand for the Pro series is not expected despite the higher pricing.’
‘Between 2022 and 2025 there has been a shift in the smartphone market where the mid-range base has swallowed and this is now going to be the feeder for Apple for the next three to four years,’ Kawoosa says.
Brar is less sanguine about the near-term picture saying that the ‘Pricing of the Pro models is arguably a bigger issue for Apple’s India business. If the iPhone 18 Pro moves towards Rs 1,40,000 and Pro Max towards Rs 1,55,000 or higher, Apple starts testing the limits of India’s aspirational premium buyer. Financing, trade-ins and festive discounts can soften the headline price, but they cannot eliminate the psychological impact of repeated price increases.’ He is equally direct on whether Pro and foldable volumes can substitute for the absent base model: ‘The Pro and Fold models can increase revenue and ASP, but they cannot replace those volumes one-for-one. Apple will probably rely heavily on the iPhone 17 and other older models to maintain scale during the festive period.’
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Counterpoint Research forecasts India’s smartphone market to contract by approximately 12-14% in 2026, as rising memory prices squeeze demand and force manufacturers to choose between cutting cashback offers, trimming specifications or raising prices. Apple’s premium positioning places it largely above those pressures, but not entirely outside them.
According to preliminary estimates from CMR, Apple could account for approximately 40% of its annual India shipment volume in the launch quarter, defined as September through November 2026, against an average of approximately 20% per quarter during the rest of the year. Year-on-year growth in that launch quarter is estimated at approximately 4%. Within that window, the iPhone 18 Pro is projected to account for approximately 8% of Apple’s India shipments, the Pro Max approximately 5% and the iPhone Ultra approximately 24% of the India foldable market. These are preliminary estimates.
Ram’s broader assessment of the India opportunity is that ‘The headroom for growth in India remains immense and for Ternus the challenge is to double down on the India shift that Tim Cook enabled. With a deepening supply-chain ecosystem in the country and a widening retail network, Apple has the opportunity to bolster decadal growth.’
Retail availability is expected around 18 to 19 September, placing Apple’s new line-up in Indian stores nearly two months before Diwali. ‘The timing is particularly significant, as a September launch would give Apple almost the entire October–November festive period to build momentum’, said Nimkar. He adds a note of caution about where volumes actually originate: ‘The primary volume drivers are likely to remain the N-1 and N-2 models, which attract consumers through more competitive pricing and festive offers, rather than the latest launches.’ Brar adds the commercial specifics: ‘Having inventory available before Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali gives Apple and its retail partners time to build promotions, exchange programmes and EMI offers around the new line-up. The foldable will generate considerable visibility during the festive season, although mainstream iPhone models will still generate the vast majority of actual sales.’
On who buys the foldable in India in year one, Kawoosa expects the migration to come from within Apple’s own ecosystem before pulling in external converts: ‘I expect existing iPhone users to be the first buyers of the fold. Later, perhaps three to six months down the line, we will see users, even fold users of other brands, switching in to Apple for the fold. India is one of the fastest growing markets for Apple today and I expect the same to replicate in foldables.’
Brar argues that ‘A foldable costing around Rs 2,00,000 or more isn’t going to be a mainstream iPhone. The initial buyer is likely to be an existing Pro Max customer, an affluent early adopter or somebody for whom the iPhone is also a luxury purchase. India’s premium smartphone market is expanding rapidly, but there is a big difference between consumers stretching to Rs 70,000 to Rs 1,00,000 through financing and those willing to spend Rs 2,00,000-plus on a phone.’
Nimkar and Brar align on what a Rs 2,30,000-plus entry point for the Ultra would signal to rivals. Nimkar says that ‘Apple would effectively be signalling that there is room for a foldable to command a substantial premium over conventional flagships.’ While Brar adds that ‘Samsung, Google and other manufacturers would then have greater headroom to push their own foldables upward, although they will still need to justify those prices through hardware and experience rather than simply following Apple.’
Apple’s India manufacturing expansion has brought Pro model assembly to domestic facilities. The question for consumers is whether localisation translates to lower retail prices. The analyst consensus is that it does not, at least not directly. ‘Domestic production can reduce Apple’s cost, but consumers are unlikely to see the full benefit as a direct price reduction. India still applies 18% GST on smartphones, while the bigger advantage of local assembly is avoiding the customs burden on a fully imported finished device’, said Nimkar. ‘With Pro models being assembled in India, the bigger long-term benefit is that Apple can absorb component-cost inflation, protect margins and keep Indian pricing more competitive.’
Brar puts it plainly: ‘Manufacturing localisation gives Apple more pricing flexibility in India; it does not guarantee cheaper iPhones.’
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Apple’s 2025 India story was defined by record shipments and rising market share, with approximately 14 million iPhones shipped and a record 9% market share, up from 7% in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research data. The 2026 story will depend on whether that trajectory holds at structurally higher price points, across a portfolio without a volume-driving base model.
Brar’s working estimate puts Apple’s global iPhone shipments in 2026 broadly at 235 to 245 million units, with India at around 14 to 15 million, contingent on festive demand, pricing and availability. On the foldable, he expects high-single-digit million units globally in the first cycle at most; a meaningful share of those buyers, he predicts, will be migrating from the Pro Max, making it partly incremental volume and partly cannibalisation, but at a substantially higher ASP.
Nimkar sees room for all three flagship tiers to coexist: ‘The Rs 1,00,000-plus segment continues to benefit from the growing adoption of financing and EMI options, which significantly lowers the upfront cost of premium smartphones. The Pro can continue to cater to aspirational premium buyers, while the Pro Max remains the choice for Apple’s traditional high-end users. The Ultra, meanwhile, can occupy a narrower halo position, targeting consumers willing to pay a premium for exclusivity and the latest form factor.’
Brar’s assessment on the three iPhones launching today is that ‘Apple’s India opportunity remains strong because premiumisation is still happening, but 2026 could demonstrate the limits of that trend. The market can probably accommodate the Pro, Pro Max and an Ultra as three distinct products, but only if Apple maintains sufficiently attractive older and standard iPhones below them. The Rs 1,00,000-plus segment is growing, but it is not growing fast enough for Apple to abandon the aspirational buyer who has been central to its recent growth in India.’
As Ternus takes the stage on 9 September, that aspirational buyer is about to be tested against prices India has never seen on an iPhone before. Whether the segment holds, expands or shows its first signs of resistance is why this is Apple’s most consequential autumn in years.
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