Ever since AI has become popular all over the world, there’s an ongoing debate about whether it will affect jobs or not. Many experts have already made their statements on the topic hinting that it might affect some jobs but create some. A new report from Goldman Sachs has warned that AI may reshape the global workforce in the coming years, with automation expected to take over a big portion of existing job tasks.
The investment bank estimated that AI technology could eventually handle nearly a quarter of total work hours, raising some concerns about job displacement but falling short of predicting a widespread employment crisis.
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The analysis uses labour data from the US Department of Labour to assess how quickly advancing AI systems may change the structure of employment. According to the report, while automation will accelerate, the impact will vary by sector and occupation.
According to the report, white-collar jobs, particularly those requiring repetitive cognitive work, are likely to bear the brunt of the effects. Clerical duties, data processing, entry-level coding, accounting, and legal research are expected to be among the most exposed roles as AI tools improve in capability and adoption.
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Even with these predictions, Goldman Sachs does not expect AI to eliminate jobs. According to the research project, AI has the potential to increase labour productivity by approximately 15% over time. Based on historical trends linking productivity gains to workforce changes, the report predicts that approximately 6 to 7 percent of jobs may be lost during the adoption phase.
In the short period of time, however, this transition may impact the culture leading to a temporary rise in unemployment. The report added that the job displacement could push the unemployment rate up by about 0.6 percentage points at its peak, equivalent to roughly one million additional unemployed workers before new opportunities begin to materialise.
Coming to the conclusion, the report stated that the long term impact of AI on employment will definitely depend on how quickly the employees, companies and policymakers respond. It also mentioned that the investment in reskilling, education and development of new AI enabled roles will be a critical factor in finding out if automation leads to impact on the jobs.